http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1991394
And of course what keeps the chicks safe, keeps us safe too, in a trickle down sort of way.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1995111
So there was a human to human transmission but apparently no recombination or mutation to suggest that there will be more. Hope Indonesia gets its act together soon.
So there was a human to human transmission but apparently no recombination or mutation to suggest that there will be more. Hope Indonesia gets its act together soon.
Monday, May 22, 2006
Buffalo 1918 survivor
http://www.suntimes.com/output/health/cst-nws-flu21.html
This Buffalo woman's blood may hold the clue to a vaccine.
This Buffalo woman's blood may hold the clue to a vaccine.
Saturday, May 20, 2006
Probably not mutated In Indonesia
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/06/05/20/10041314.htmlLooks like we got lucky again in Indonesia, but I sure hope they get their act together soon.
Thursday, May 18, 2006
People and Pigs have it in Indonesia
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=JAK28830
Very worrisome news from Indonesia.
Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap genes, leading to a strain that can easily infect people and pass from person to person.
Very worrisome news from Indonesia.
Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap genes, leading to a strain that can easily infect people and pass from person to person.
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?action=detail&pk=INSURANCEFIRMS-05-16-06
Here is how a pandemic might affect the insurance industry.
Here is how a pandemic might affect the insurance industry.
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Indonesia - not good news
There is a recnt cluster of bird flu fatalities in Indonesia which has health officials worrying about the possibility that the flu was able to spread from person to person. Keep an eye on that news.
Bird Flu ABC special
While I was away Elizabeth taped the bird flu ABC special for me and I've just watched it. It did seem to cover briefly all the aspects of the flu, but in much too much a sensational manner for my taste. Here are the weaknesses as I see them:
1. While ARDS was mentioned once in passing, I doubt that any viewers really got the sense of cytokline storm that hit the first victim and accounted for his early death. Certainly is was not explained as it would have been say in an episode of CSI.
2. I just damned sick of seeing the insides of bodies on all these current television shows. I've buried most of my family and learned what killed them and why without having to see inside their body cavities. This is just exploitive sensationalism.
3. The ending was unrealistic. It is highly unlikely that two mutations would occur in such a short time and from my understanding of the 1918 precedent they cite, this was simply two waves of the same virus strain as it moved in and out of a population. There have been three pandemics this century and another will come in some form, some time. When has there ever been two in a row? And what are the odds that they would be both worst case senarios? The pandemics in 1957 and 1968 did not capture my attention at the time. They were mild killers.
4. Survival techniques were not dramatically developed. Everyone did the wrong things. Once couple was plain lucky and so they could dance on the top of a building, but no one managed to survive by preparation. Part of this is because they present the urban and suburban population but no one from rural America. Quarrantine was seen as a stupid idea imposed by government, rather than the major way of waiting out the distribution of vaccine. The message again was that communities somehow working in close connection with one another (without masks or gloves by the way) could win somehow just with a smaltzy sense of love. The truth is that small groups, hunkered down and staying out of group meetings have the best chance of survival especially if they get some food in ahead of time.
5. In the end this movie provided no hope. It was like the fighting of the movie monster. Just when you thought the coast was clear, up comes Jason again out of the lake, his chain saw running. I see pandemic as very different from other massive disasters (global warming, nuclear war) because the individual and small family group can prepare and provide, as long as they don't wait until the last minute. And the wait in quarrantine is just until vaccine gets distributed and the 50% of people who do contract (but do not die from the flu) get working again. The movie might have shown an example of a rural family who had provided ahead of time and who waited out the vaccine manufacturing and distribution delays?
6. On the other hand it did present some of the problems: food and supply shortages, insurance company defaults, economic difficulties, panic in the streets, looting and loss of lawful control of populations, overcrowding of hospitals. It did a good job showing the need to take respirators away from very sick people because there are not enough of them available in today's hospitals. And the politics seemed very believable. It balanced the information on the effectiveness of Tamiflu. Good cast too. I like these actors, especially old Stacy Keach and Justina Machado, who is such a cutie.
7. Mass graves is an exaggeration.
And in the end I am glad they did it because it rasies the consciousness of people. But we had guests this weekend whose final resistance to preparing even a bit was to say, "I don't think I really want to survive such a disaster anyway." This movie would not help those folks move from fatalism to acts of survival.
This review seems pretty sound:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/news/birdfluinamerica.html
1. While ARDS was mentioned once in passing, I doubt that any viewers really got the sense of cytokline storm that hit the first victim and accounted for his early death. Certainly is was not explained as it would have been say in an episode of CSI.
2. I just damned sick of seeing the insides of bodies on all these current television shows. I've buried most of my family and learned what killed them and why without having to see inside their body cavities. This is just exploitive sensationalism.
3. The ending was unrealistic. It is highly unlikely that two mutations would occur in such a short time and from my understanding of the 1918 precedent they cite, this was simply two waves of the same virus strain as it moved in and out of a population. There have been three pandemics this century and another will come in some form, some time. When has there ever been two in a row? And what are the odds that they would be both worst case senarios? The pandemics in 1957 and 1968 did not capture my attention at the time. They were mild killers.
4. Survival techniques were not dramatically developed. Everyone did the wrong things. Once couple was plain lucky and so they could dance on the top of a building, but no one managed to survive by preparation. Part of this is because they present the urban and suburban population but no one from rural America. Quarrantine was seen as a stupid idea imposed by government, rather than the major way of waiting out the distribution of vaccine. The message again was that communities somehow working in close connection with one another (without masks or gloves by the way) could win somehow just with a smaltzy sense of love. The truth is that small groups, hunkered down and staying out of group meetings have the best chance of survival especially if they get some food in ahead of time.
5. In the end this movie provided no hope. It was like the fighting of the movie monster. Just when you thought the coast was clear, up comes Jason again out of the lake, his chain saw running. I see pandemic as very different from other massive disasters (global warming, nuclear war) because the individual and small family group can prepare and provide, as long as they don't wait until the last minute. And the wait in quarrantine is just until vaccine gets distributed and the 50% of people who do contract (but do not die from the flu) get working again. The movie might have shown an example of a rural family who had provided ahead of time and who waited out the vaccine manufacturing and distribution delays?
6. On the other hand it did present some of the problems: food and supply shortages, insurance company defaults, economic difficulties, panic in the streets, looting and loss of lawful control of populations, overcrowding of hospitals. It did a good job showing the need to take respirators away from very sick people because there are not enough of them available in today's hospitals. And the politics seemed very believable. It balanced the information on the effectiveness of Tamiflu. Good cast too. I like these actors, especially old Stacy Keach and Justina Machado, who is such a cutie.
7. Mass graves is an exaggeration.
And in the end I am glad they did it because it rasies the consciousness of people. But we had guests this weekend whose final resistance to preparing even a bit was to say, "I don't think I really want to survive such a disaster anyway." This movie would not help those folks move from fatalism to acts of survival.
This review seems pretty sound:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/news/birdfluinamerica.html
Sunday, May 14, 2006
Still more good news
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/10/health/10cnd-flu.html?_r=1&ex=1147492800&en=34534b3b2a87983d&ei=5087%0A&oref=slogin
If the flu fails to show up here in the Fall, we will be spared a lot of difficulty for the poultry industry and lessen the chance of more dire circumstances.
And if this science is good, this strain may never mutate and we may have time to prepare for the eventual pandemic.
less likely
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%3Ca%20href=%22http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%22%3E%3C/a%3E
If the flu fails to show up here in the Fall, we will be spared a lot of difficulty for the poultry industry and lessen the chance of more dire circumstances.
And if this science is good, this strain may never mutate and we may have time to prepare for the eventual pandemic.
less likely
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%3Ca%20href=%22http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%22%3E%3C/a%3E
Meanwhile some countries lie and drag feet
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/19/AR2005101902147.html
Here is the problem. When governments are too corrupt to act, the disease has a chance to get a foothold.
Here is the problem. When governments are too corrupt to act, the disease has a chance to get a foothold.
Saturday, May 13, 2006
Good news
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/world/asia/14flu.html?ex=1305259200&en=41357a0296e3fda5&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss
Good news here. As it wanes, the odds of mutation go down too.
Good news here. As it wanes, the odds of mutation go down too.
Friday, May 12, 2006
Here is a note to ponder
This came from the company that I bought masks and gloves from last month:
Greetings,
You have purchased products at our site http://www.respirators.us .
As a result of a number of factors surrounding the Avian Flu scare (including
the ABC movie on the Bird Flu) we have been informed by our manufacturers that
a shortage in mask/respirator stock will occur very soon.
We apologize in advance and we will remove all products from our site that are
not available.
Regards,
Respirators Inc.
Greetings,
You have purchased products at our site http://www.respirators.us .
As a result of a number of factors surrounding the Avian Flu scare (including
the ABC movie on the Bird Flu) we have been informed by our manufacturers that
a shortage in mask/respirator stock will occur very soon.
We apologize in advance and we will remove all products from our site that are
not available.
Regards,
Respirators Inc.
Bird Flu Survey
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1872540
I don't know where these concerned people are, but I don't hear a thing about this issue. This is a good article, however, and touches on many relevant issues.
I don't know where these concerned people are, but I don't hear a thing about this issue. This is a good article, however, and touches on many relevant issues.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
See you in a month
Well, I am gone for three weeks so this will have to do for a while.
I'd advise any readers. (Hmmmmmm. Do I actually have any readers?) to stock up on some latex gloves. If the Federal Government has decided to stockpile millions of them, then they won't be available for you and me.
Soon, I won't be the only one talking about all this. ABC will start the ball rolling and the other networks will have to follow. About time I think.
Well, I'm off to play some random games that don't have deadly outcomes. I wish all of life was as easy as a game of poker where the most that can be lost is money.
I'd advise any readers. (Hmmmmmm. Do I actually have any readers?) to stock up on some latex gloves. If the Federal Government has decided to stockpile millions of them, then they won't be available for you and me.
Soon, I won't be the only one talking about all this. ABC will start the ball rolling and the other networks will have to follow. About time I think.
Well, I'm off to play some random games that don't have deadly outcomes. I wish all of life was as easy as a game of poker where the most that can be lost is money.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Does this sound familiar?
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T224607Z_01_N184659_RTRIDST_0_BIRDFLU-HOSPITALS.XML
One the main reasons to take some personal responsibility for the potential of pandemic is that there will not be help if it hits. The Feds have already indicated that they can't help. And here is what hospitals cannot do. Note that venilators are probably the single most useful way of helping those who catch a H5N1 flu bug stay alive. But they just are not going to be there.
Just like Katrina. Nobody can do nothing. The Feds say it is not their job. The locals say they don't have funds or manpower. If it is Arab terrorists, we can mortage into two or three coming generations of taxpayers for wars that cost billions and last years and years, but a little attacking bug that will be gone in two years, that is just not a real enemy I guess.
Such a shame. Were we to win a war against H5N1 we would have no difficulty managing the subsequent peace as we do when we invade other countries. That effort would be a win/win.
Whatever happens with this current scare, everyone agrees that a pandemic is coming sooner or later. I suggest we vote in some people who will invest in hospital preparedness and get our National Guard home so they can guard the nation.
One the main reasons to take some personal responsibility for the potential of pandemic is that there will not be help if it hits. The Feds have already indicated that they can't help. And here is what hospitals cannot do. Note that venilators are probably the single most useful way of helping those who catch a H5N1 flu bug stay alive. But they just are not going to be there.
Just like Katrina. Nobody can do nothing. The Feds say it is not their job. The locals say they don't have funds or manpower. If it is Arab terrorists, we can mortage into two or three coming generations of taxpayers for wars that cost billions and last years and years, but a little attacking bug that will be gone in two years, that is just not a real enemy I guess.
"Peacock said much of the response to a pandemic will involve very basic medical care -- including triage, or sorting out which patients cannot be helped except through heroic measures. Those patients are going to get some morphine and get sat in a corner. That is the definition of a disaster -- need exceeds resources," Peacock said.
Such a shame. Were we to win a war against H5N1 we would have no difficulty managing the subsequent peace as we do when we invade other countries. That effort would be a win/win.
Whatever happens with this current scare, everyone agrees that a pandemic is coming sooner or later. I suggest we vote in some people who will invest in hospital preparedness and get our National Guard home so they can guard the nation.
Pandemic Movie Coming Soon
http://smallscreen.monstersandcritics.com/article_1156414.php/ABC_to_take_on_avian_flu_during_sweeps
SURPRISE! BIRD FLU TO ARRIVE ON ABC
Entertainment columnists were taken aback Tuesday when ABC announced that it would be broadcasting a made-for-TV disaster movie about avian flu on May 9. The network had succeeded in keeping the production of Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America, starring Stacy Keach, Joely Richardson, Ann Cusack and Justine Machado, completely under wraps. The announcement "came as a complete surprise in a business nearly devoid of surprises," wrote Michael Starr in the New York Post. In its announcement, ABC said that the movie "follows an outbreak of an Avian Flu from its origins in a Hong Kong market through its mutation into a virus transmittable from human to human around the world." Co-producer Diana Kerew told the Post that the network had kept the project secret because "The world changes very quickly, and we wanted to make sure at the point we were ready to unveil [the movie] that we were accurate and up-to-date." John M. Barry, author of the bestseller, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, about the 1918 Spanish flu, served as a consultant on the project. Meanwhile, NBC announce that it plans to take an in-depth look at the avian flu with a series of reports on the Today show and Dateline NBC.
Good, maybe if we can put out a fictional account, someone will take some serious notice.
SURPRISE! BIRD FLU TO ARRIVE ON ABC
Entertainment columnists were taken aback Tuesday when ABC announced that it would be broadcasting a made-for-TV disaster movie about avian flu on May 9. The network had succeeded in keeping the production of Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America, starring Stacy Keach, Joely Richardson, Ann Cusack and Justine Machado, completely under wraps. The announcement "came as a complete surprise in a business nearly devoid of surprises," wrote Michael Starr in the New York Post. In its announcement, ABC said that the movie "follows an outbreak of an Avian Flu from its origins in a Hong Kong market through its mutation into a virus transmittable from human to human around the world." Co-producer Diana Kerew told the Post that the network had kept the project secret because "The world changes very quickly, and we wanted to make sure at the point we were ready to unveil [the movie] that we were accurate and up-to-date." John M. Barry, author of the bestseller, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, about the 1918 Spanish flu, served as a consultant on the project. Meanwhile, NBC announce that it plans to take an in-depth look at the avian flu with a series of reports on the Today show and Dateline NBC.
Good, maybe if we can put out a fictional account, someone will take some serious notice.
Myth vesus Fact
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/nation/14360881.htm
This is a pretty good restatement of bird flu currently and of pandemic potential. It sorts the facts from the overreaction (myth).
This is a pretty good restatement of bird flu currently and of pandemic potential. It sorts the facts from the overreaction (myth).
Monday, April 17, 2006
Bird Watchers and Feeders Risk nothing
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060416/COLUMNIST22/604160348/-1/SPORTS09
A number of sources have written to stop bird watchers and backyard feeders from worrying, especially this season before any virus has reached our shores.
A number of sources have written to stop bird watchers and backyard feeders from worrying, especially this season before any virus has reached our shores.
Sunday, April 16, 2006
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