Someone asked about the recent stats on the likelihood of this virus becoming a bird flu. Here is a good article. I'm in the process of eating down my stockpiled canned goods. I'll replenish once they are pretty much gone.

http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12014

new hope

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=17&art_id=51508&sid=14988194&con_type=1

hopeful new breakthrough

If pandemic holds off long enough, we may be better prepared to fight.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070529/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

Here is a note from a bird flu newsletter that touches in an interesting way on my other interest.

It's been awhile since you've heard from us ...things have
been relatively quiet.  But not so quiet that we should
become complacent.  While H5N1 still hasn't hit North
America, at least in its most virolent form, it is still
ravaging some countries, most notably Indonesia and now
Egypt where 2 new cases yesterday bring the total number of
human cases in the most populous Arab country to 29.  The
virus is known to have infected nearly 300 people in 12
countries since 2003, killing more than half of them.
========================================

A trip to Las Vegas in February emphasized to us the
critical necessity to avoid human contact during a
pandemic.  After spending a week amongst throngs of tourists
from all over the world, rubbing shoulders, breathing the
same air, handling the same casino chips, pulling the same
slot machine handles, exchanging currency, spending hours
inside aircraft, etc., we both returned home sick as dogs.
One could scarcely imagine a more condusive atmosphere for
the spread of viruses.  We took plenty of ViraBlock with us,
and used it often, but of course they won't allow you to
take it into the cabin of the airplane.  We should have been
wearing our respirators I guess, but this is a practice that
isn't common in the West like it is in the Orient.  You can
bet that we won't be so reticent if H5N1 starts to spread.

moves toward more study

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070402/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/bird_flu_research_grants

new thoughts

A recent NY time article reported that scientists were once again warning us not to about become too complacent about the danger of pandemic. It is still speading at an increasing rate. Here is the latest infection in Egypt:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070312/ap_on_he_me/egypt_bird_flu

Takes your bets on bird flu

Here is a really interesting way to gather information.
Gambling.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070301/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_betting

No vacine yet

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070226/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_vaccine

Plans keep coming

Few are talking about the threat of bird flu, but quietly in little corners of the economy, people are getting ready. Good thing we have more lead time than we thought.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070218/ap_on_bi_ge/bird_flu_groceries

Tamiflu for kids

Probably hte age group that needs the most help were this flu to evolve into pandemic. Whether tamiflu would offset the cytokine storm damage, but it is better than nothing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070216/ap_on_he_me/switzerland_roche_tamiflu

Mask experiment

Michigan students testing the value of masks against flu.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070209/ap_on_he_me/flu_masks

Very good research news.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070201/ap_on_he_me/1918_flu

released birds have flu

Religion and science clash is many unusual ways:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070113/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

killing cats and dogs in Korea

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2681519

Sure hope this guy is right

Here is the most optimistic prognosis yet.



http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1793183.htm

Sure hope this guy is right

Here is the most optimistic prognosis yet.



http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1793183.htm

Well, just as there is some headway, another problem raises its head. The ability of our current leaders to provide vaccine for us is probably the main issue determining how many die and how many are saved during pandemic. We can hunker down and isolate from the flu for a while, but if that time is too long, supplies, patience, even broken appliances may end out isolation. Having less flu vaccine is not a good thing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061117/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_vaccines

Well, I am very happy to have managed to have my party in Las Vegas in December before any mutation. Perhaps it will all hold off until I am dead of something else. At least I have modeled the proper response when the kids have to face pandemic.

More virus analysis

These changes would have to occur for the virus to mutate.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2655618

Lake log October 30, 2006

We woke up to the first snow of the season. I know many of you, having just endured that Buffalo area storm perhaps can't celebrate with us, but it certainly was stunningly beautiful to greet sunise frosted in over an inch of white.

The fish have stopped biting off the dock. If I want to catch them, I have to look for perch and pretend to be fishing through the ice.

***********************



On Halloween we had one trick or treater whose dad decided to walk the length of our dark street and to our lighted house. We had debated buying any candy, but I was glad I had the bag of Reeses's peanut butter cup.

Jacob was 5 or 6 at most and was very talkative and opinionated. With his round glasses he looked just like a miniature version of that kid who gets the Red Ryder B-B gun in the old Jean Shepard You'll-shoot=your-eye-out story.

"Who do we have here?" Elizabeth asked.
"I want you to guess." Jacob responded.
" I guess you are Harry Potter."
"No." responded Jacob, "I am Jacob disguised as Harry Potter."

So much for confusing objective and subjective reality.

I fished out a couple peanut butter cups, dropped it in his plastic pumpkin, and decided to add a fine local apple I had just bought that day. I showed it to Jacob's dad, so he would know that it was safe and would not just toss it away.

"An apple is NOT a treat!" asserted Jacob Harry Potter, and he buzzed me with his magic wand to punctuate this truth.

"Well, I did also put in the two peanut butter cups," I explained.

His outrage was appeased.

*********************
Tomorrow we are going up to Yarmouth, Maine. Elizabeth has a conference, and I am tagging along. With my cold almost completely gone I suspect it will be a delightful journey.



As you walk into winter,
Enjoy!

Lake log October 30, 2006

We woke up to the first snow of the season. I know many of you, having just endured that Buffalo area storm perhaps can't celebrate with us, but it certainly was stunningly beautiful to greet sunise frosted in over an inch of white.

The fish have stopped biting off the dock. If I want to catch them, I have to look for perch and pretend to be fishing through the ice.

***********************



On Halloween we had one trick or treater whose dad decided to walk the length of our dark street and to our lighted house. We had debated buying any candy, but I was glad I had the bag of Reeses's peanut butter cup.

Jacob was 5 or 6 at most and was very talkative and opinionated. With his round glasses he looked just like a miniature version of that kid who gets the Red Ryder B-B gun in the old Jean Shepard You'll-shoot=your-eye-out story.

"Who do we have here?" Elizabeth asked.
"I want you to guess." Jacob responded.
" I guess you are Harry Potter."
"No." responded Jacob, "I am Jacob disguised as Harry Potter."

So much for confusing objective and subjective reality.

I fished out a couple peanut butter cups, dropped it in his plastic pumpkin, and decided to add a fine local apple I had just bought that day. I showed it to Jacob's dad, so he would know that it was safe and would not just toss it away.

"An apple is NOT a treat!" asserted Jacob Harry Potter, and he buzzed me with his magic wand to punctuate this truth.

"Well, I did also put in the two peanut butter cups," I explained.

His outrage was appeased.

*********************
Tomorrow we are going up to Yarmouth, Maine. Elizabeth has a conference, and I am tagging along. With my cold almost completely gone I suspect it will be a delightful journey.



As you walk into winter,
Enjoy!