Discouraging News

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=2616595&page=1

There is a new strain now resistant to fowl vaccines. This whole game is like playing Whack-a-Mole and hoping that all of a sudden the More does not find a way to leave his hole in the wooden box.

More whining

http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/review.php?ID=24635
Here is the attitude that worries me. There has been scientific warning for years now on possible pandemic, but when it actually catches the mainline press and raises consciousness, then everyone thinks it must happen on schedule, sooner rather than later, or it is just a joke. It doesn't happen in a few months and Oh well........

This is what happened in New Orleans. There was always a possibility of an intense hurricane, but because people were warned so many times, they got used to it, and did not take precaution.

Scientists tell us pandemic will come. Tomorrow or in a decade. Individual preparation is all that is needed. Put away a little food, Prepare for being home a lot. Back up your energy needs. Plan.

We all wait for the emergency. Then it is too late. I have seen the inconvenience, shock, and fear that just 9 days of power loss and a little storm caused in Buffalo and that was when all surroundings areas could rally to help, when neighbors could help neighbors and when no one was dying of the trouble.

Listen, the World Health Organization may not get top news billing every day, but they say this is a huge world wide danger. People need to prepare for it just like they do for a house fire. Our houses that have never burned in 100 years still have smoke detectors, electrical inspections, fire extinquishers. Larger buildings install sprinkle systems.

This kind of whining is very irresponsible. It suggests that there is a plot to put people in panic for no reason when actually there is a panic that dysfunctional families and communities will be at a total loss if this hits and people ought to at least know the danger.

And it isn't like there is no news. There is news every day of folks attempting to make vaccine, making plans, testing wild birds, it just does not get in the daily news on the top of the page. And it won't. Every day someone has their car inspected too and problems corrected, but it is the car crashes that get the media attention.

Remember the joke about the farmer with the leaky roof. On sunny days he noticed nothing, but when it rained and roof leaked, well, who could fix the roof in the rain?

All the farmer with the leaky roof ended up was wet. The farmer with pandemic roof leaks may end up dead or worse yet, with dead children.

Bird Flu Vaccine might be a very good one

This is the best vaccine news I have read in a long while:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061018/ap_on_he_me/pandemic_vaccine

Another attempt at a good spin

Anything to calm the public. In Iraq we won the war and lost the peace. In Bird Flu we are state of the art in control of the chickens who might get it, but if it becomes a people disease, our government says we are unprepared, that like Katrina this is a job for local and state government, that we are individually responsible for protecting ourselves, and that we ought to be weekly putting a can of tuna and some powdered milk under the bed as a hedge against starvation. Hardly seems like a "state of the art" plan to me. Unless you are a chicken.

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=N05401262

Virus mutates easily

This is not really new information, but it is resubstantiated by this report. It is going to be a long, anxious winter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060928/ap_on_he_me/un_bird_flu

and in case we were getting lulled

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bird-flu-still-real-risk-says-expert/2006/09/17/1158431586185.html

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=144528

Call for more drugs

I don't like hearing of the drug resistant strains. Scary stuff.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200609/s1749795.htm

More research into immune response as killer

One of the great ironies of this strain of flu, like its cousin in 1918 is that it is often the immune system that kills the victim. That is one of the suggested reasons why so many young people die when they get the disease. Here is some new research with mice exploring that phenomena.


http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2499374

Air travel and spread of flu

Not that this is new information, but it does confirm by a study what most took for granted.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2422029

Bird Flu Compared with Common Flu

A new study in Vietnam throws some detailed light on why this flu is so deadly. It also stresses early treatment with Tamiflu.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1737677.htm

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060910/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_humans

http://article.wn.com/view/2006/09/11/Study_shows_need_for_early_use_of_Tamiflu/

AND FROM PANDEMIC NEWS:

Paris - New research conducted among bird flu victims in Vietnam
shows the H5N1 virus replicates massively before unleashing a
dangerous inflammatory response by the immune system, indicating
that patients should be given antiviral drugs as soon as possible.

Published online Sunday by the journal Nature Medicine, the study
focuses on 18 Vietnamese who caught bird flu in 2004 and 2005, 13
of whom died.

Samples were taken from these patients to assess the level of H5N1
virus in the throat, and compared with other patients who had two
strains of ordinary human flu.

H5N1 patients had much higher viral loads than counterparts with
the human virus. In addition, high levels of H5N1 also triggered a
"dysregulation" of cytokines - messenger proteins in the immune
system - which in turn caused inflammation and worsened the
patient's condition.

"The focus of clinical management should be on preventing this
intense cytokine response, by early diagnosis and effective
antiviral
treatment," says the paper, lead-authored by Menno de Jong of the
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam.

The antiviral of choice in fighting H5N1 is oseltamivir, which
is made
by the Swiss group Roche and commercialised under the brand Tamiflu.

Tamiflu is not a cure for flu. It brakes replication of the virus,
thereby
easing inflammation which is the cause of most flu symptoms and
speeding the time to recovery.

Roche recommends that Tamiflu be administered within 48 hours to
treat ordinary seasonal human flu, and says work is under way to
fine tune treatment for bird flu.

Millions of doses of Tamiflu are being stockpiled by governments
and the World Health Organisation in the event of a global
flu pandemic.

Some experts warn against over-reliance on Tamiflu, fearing
that the
drug could be of limited use if the H5N1 virus, at present
transmissible
from birds to humans, mutates into a form that could make it easily
contagious among humans.

In the Vietnam study, 17 of the 18 cases received Tamiflu.
The drug
appears to have had little effect, but probably because
it was
administered too late to prevent the cytokine cascade,
the paper
said. - Sapa-AFP

More good news

CLUES TO TREATMENT OF BIRD FLU A review of medical literature published during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic suggests that transfusions from people who survived the flu may have helped others who became sick. Navy researchers combed old publications to determine what strategies might have been effective for fighting the last pandemic flu. They believe that transfusions from someone who successfully survived the flu virus may be a viable way to treat victims of the current circulating H5N1 bird flu. This research was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.


I heard a report on this on NPR. It seems pretty plausible. Maybe it will save some lives. One good thing is to have so many people working in different ideas before there is pandemic. In 1918 the scientists had to start for square one. They were not even sure if it was influenza or some new disease. At least we have the pathogen at the starting gate.

Interesting flu case

This will help show not only if pregnant women can be treated with Tamiflu but if it at all helps slow up this virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060828/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_pregnancy

Progress on vaccine

This is good news, but of course it might not protect people from a mutated virus.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060828/ap_on_he_me/china_bird_flu_vaccine

Recent conversations - reading

It was a surprise to me at a poker game last night to find a fellow player had attended meetings at his workplace in which information on the flu had been shared and preparation begun for planning in case of pandemic. He seemed annoyed to have more work added to his routine agenda. Or maybe he just thought it was useless to plan when if pandemic hit, his place would be shut down.

Again, however, I encountered responses I find everywhere. One attitude that said, "Well, if my friends and family are going to die, I might as well die with them." Another that this was terrible and not much can be done, let's face it with humor.

I think preparation would help. Even small things like stockpiling food and preparing a family plan can save lives.

I am disappointed that there is not more leadership in government. As a county we mobilize to fight the big terrorists, but these little life forms hunting us are seen as a state and local responsibility. It seems odd to me. They certainly don't stay in one state or locality.

Disturbing was to hear that masks are not available right now and being bought up and stockpiled by government and health agencies. I had read this in other places but it also seems to me that I have seen some masks still available. I'll have to do some checking to see.

I just finished Barry's book on the 1918 influenza and while I won't say I can remember all the details, I did cull some interesting ideas.

SPREADING: Some of the threads were common to other reading. I age group hit was 20-40. The most common reason it is spread is overcrowding. In 1918 it was War related activity that helped spread it. Soldiers moved around from place to place. Even parades to sell war bonds helped.

INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY ACTION: Getting people to stay home and observe a few simple hygenic practices might easily have prevented some death.

DENIAL: Denial was even more widespread in 1918 because the government had completely dominated what could be printed and distributed in the press and the country had mobililzed to avoid spreading any truth that might affect the morale of the country in fighting war, so the influenza was under reported, falsely minimized, called other diseases, or simply ignored. I see the strong force for denial today. Happily some government and work places are preparing, but homes are underprepared. Simply stocking a little xtra food might make it possible to save lives in family and community.

MATHEMATICS: The development of the flu follows the same regression to the mean as does gambling. Waves of virus that are particularly mild may mutate toward the more severe while the worst case bugs mutate toward milder version. Randomness and the patterns of randomness again dictate how the disease develops.

FEAR: Reaction of individuals and communities to fear creates denial. Enormous energy must be exerted in order to get people to face fear. And yet if too much is said then panic sets in. It is a strange dilemma for educators even if motives for deciding how much information to disseminate are all simply to help people survive. In 1918 motives had nothing to do with the flu; the country had a single motive, to win the war. Everything else had to be sacrificed to achieve that goal and if anyone suggested differetly they were imprisoned by government or killed by vigilantes.

ETHICS: What to do in the face of pandemic is a difficult ethical problem. We want to help the people around us, but going to their aid can further spread the disease. In 1918, panic restricted people's altruism so that health professionals did not rise to calls for help, many people did not go to work, and people stayed away from others so they could not help them. Where once they might have brought food to the sick or dying they were afraid to catch the disease. I'm caught particularly in this problem. I guess I become a conservative on this issue because I want first to protect my family and survive. This Blog seemed a way to satisfy my responsibility to my community. As an educator I can best help by getting information out to people.

So faced with the tension between survival and being a helpful person to those I know, I settled on this Blog. So far it has failed to be of much benefit except to a very few. Sometimes I thing only spammers read this thing. So I tend to get a bit cynical. It reminds me too much of teaching inner city kids my entire life when so few wanted to learn anything I knew.

On the other hand as a tool to collect information for myself, the Blog works. In effect my thoughts and ideas on this topic are quarrantined just as my family will be when pandemic hits.

The author deals with people who selflessly work to help others and continue in the face of great risk. Many die. Still they are the heros. So figuring the right action is difficult.

SCIENCE: I suppose that I am picking up the prejudice of the Barry but I kept thinking in reading the book that science rather than war should be the focus of our society and that we are missing a great opportunity in these days of scientific wonder not to invest more in discovering things. Without some very smart people and their hard work to find the cause of disease our lives would be a lot different today. Tomorrow could be even better.

TERRORISM: Of course, that same knowledge in the hand of terrorists would reek an awful cost on America. If the virus is studied and described in detail then it can be grown and perhaps even genetically created and spread around the country. The result would cause a lot more panic than a couple airplanes in the towers. Barry says, " A weaponized influenza virus could be the equivalent of a worldwide nuclear holocaust." However, I think that is overstatement. Nuclear disaster leaves an unlivable planet. Even the worst pandemic will leave survivors who have developed immunity and their environment will be as healthy as it ever was, more healthy in fact because pollution will be greatly reduced.

new scare in Nepal

This might not be our H5N1 but it is not good news.

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_21234978.shtml

First bird flu here but not the bad one

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060814/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

good news on vaccine

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2237838

But keep the fine print in mind:

Because it is impossible to predict which influenza strain will spark the next pandemic, it is equally impossible to produce a vaccine that will be completely effective.

USA-No Plan Again

I don't know, it is not surprising to me that the government does not have a plan.
Why, isn't it enough to just put an extra can of tuna fish under the bed?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_testing
http://www.abc4.com/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=CEE6EDF8-E35D-41AA-AC65-B51E01BECD4D

"The senators (and that includes our own Hilary ) said the department is relying too heavily on states and that many states don't have enough personnel to help coordinate."

Overview of Fatalities

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro06-avfludeaths-date_desc.html?mod=blogs

Good summary with details surrounding the deaths.

Indonesia still a virus breeding ground

Indonesia is still a good candidate for the mutation that will mean pandemic.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060716/ap_on_he_me/indonesia_bird_flu
"Indonesia's caseload is increasing faster than any other country in the world — with all of its deaths occurring in the last year. The government says it cannot afford to routinely cull fowl in infected areas."