bird H5N1 flu

Bird Flu made into pandemic form

2012-02-18T05:54:00.000-05:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/health/details-of-bird-flu-research-will-be-released.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Amazing. As we tinker with nature, this is part of our potential. The scary part.

Still around and a threat

2012-01-19T22:04:00.002-05:00

http://www.latimes.com/health/boostershots/la-heb-bird-flu-vietnam-deaths-science-20120119,0,4721836.story

The new movie Contagion

2011-09-12T06:31:00.002-04:00

will probably do what no science report could ever do, engage the attention of the population. So far box office stats say it is on the road to being a winner.

Japan seeing the virus reimerge

2011-01-04T07:15:00.003-05:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/04/health/04global.html?ref=todayspaper

The pandemic is Over

2010-08-10T20:19:00.000-04:00

http://www.latimes.com/health/la-sci-who-flu-20100811,0,6814281.story

Ironically we had a power outage of 3 hours this morning and the generator made it comfortable and less anxious. It was the possibility of Pandemic that inspired us to get the generator.

Finally, some official talk about real pandemic

2009-10-25T07:05:00.003-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/25/weekinreview/25fink.html?_r=1

This flu may get some wheels in motion that save lives when the real disease finally arrives.

However, the fact that when the discussion became upsetting it was just dropped is not very comforting.

Ducks play a big role

2008-03-24T17:19:00.001-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080324/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_rice_fields

so far so good

2008-03-14T13:52:00.000-04:00

Natural News reports that one of the primary factors
that keeps bird flu from infecting humans is that
the virus has evolved to reproduce most effectively in the bodies of birds,
which have an average body temperature of 106°F (41°C).
 Humans, in contrast, have an average body temperature of 98.6° (37°C),
with temperatures in the nose and throat even lower (91.4°, or 33°C).
This vast temperature difference makes it very difficult for the bird flu
virus to survive and grow in the human body.

2007-09-21T12:52:00.001-04:00

Someone asked about the recent stats on the likelihood of this virus becoming a bird flu. Here is a good article. I'm in the process of eating down my stockpiled canned goods. I'll replenish once they are pretty much gone.

http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12014

new hope

2007-08-20T06:46:00.000-04:00

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=17&art_id=51508&sid=14988194&con_type=1

hopeful new breakthrough

2007-05-29T16:38:00.000-04:00

If pandemic holds off long enough, we may be better prepared to fight.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070529/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

2007-04-17T16:17:00.000-04:00

Here is a note from a bird flu newsletter that touches in an interesting way on my other interest.

It's been awhile since you've heard from us ...things have
been relatively quiet.  But not so quiet that we should
become complacent.  While H5N1 still hasn't hit North
America, at least in its most virolent form, it is still
ravaging some countries, most notably Indonesia and now
Egypt where 2 new cases yesterday bring the total number of
human cases in the most populous Arab country to 29.  The
virus is known to have infected nearly 300 people in 12
countries since 2003, killing more than half of them.
========================================

A trip to Las Vegas in February emphasized to us the
critical necessity to avoid human contact during a
pandemic.  After spending a week amongst throngs of tourists
from all over the world, rubbing shoulders, breathing the
same air, handling the same casino chips, pulling the same
slot machine handles, exchanging currency, spending hours
inside aircraft, etc., we both returned home sick as dogs.
One could scarcely imagine a more condusive atmosphere for
the spread of viruses.  We took plenty of ViraBlock with us,
and used it often, but of course they won't allow you to
take it into the cabin of the airplane.  We should have been
wearing our respirators I guess, but this is a practice that
isn't common in the West like it is in the Orient.  You can
bet that we won't be so reticent if H5N1 starts to spread.

moves toward more study

2007-04-02T14:54:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070402/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/bird_flu_research_grants

new thoughts

2007-03-12T11:12:00.000-04:00

A recent NY time article reported that scientists were once again warning us not to about become too complacent about the danger of pandemic. It is still speading at an increasing rate. Here is the latest infection in Egypt:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070312/ap_on_he_me/egypt_bird_flu

Takes your bets on bird flu

2007-03-01T05:48:00.000-05:00

Here is a really interesting way to gather information.
Gambling.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070301/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_betting

No vacine yet

2007-02-26T15:08:00.000-05:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070226/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_vaccine

Plans keep coming

2007-02-18T19:03:00.000-05:00

Few are talking about the threat of bird flu, but quietly in little corners of the economy, people are getting ready. Good thing we have more lead time than we thought.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070218/ap_on_bi_ge/bird_flu_groceries

Tamiflu for kids

2007-02-16T12:49:00.000-05:00

Probably hte age group that needs the most help were this flu to evolve into pandemic. Whether tamiflu would offset the cytokine storm damage, but it is better than nothing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070216/ap_on_he_me/switzerland_roche_tamiflu

Mask experiment

2007-02-09T19:26:00.000-05:00

Michigan students testing the value of masks against flu.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070209/ap_on_he_me/flu_masks

2007-02-01T17:26:00.000-05:00

Very good research news.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070201/ap_on_he_me/1918_flu

released birds have flu

2007-01-13T15:44:00.000-05:00

Religion and science clash is many unusual ways:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070113/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

killing cats and dogs in Korea

2006-11-30T22:03:00.000-05:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2681519

Sure hope this guy is right

2006-11-20T19:54:00.001-05:00

Here is the most optimistic prognosis yet.

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1793183.htm

Sure hope this guy is right

2006-11-20T19:54:00.000-05:00

Here is the most optimistic prognosis yet.

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1793183.htm

2006-11-18T06:40:00.000-05:00

Well, just as there is some headway, another problem raises its head. The ability of our current leaders to provide vaccine for us is probably the main issue determining how many die and how many are saved during pandemic. We can hunker down and isolate from the flu for a while, but if that time is too long, supplies, patience, even broken appliances may end out isolation. Having less flu vaccine is not a good thing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061117/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_vaccines

Well, I am very happy to have managed to have my party in Las Vegas in December before any mutation. Perhaps it will all hold off until I am dead of something else. At least I have modeled the proper response when the kids have to face pandemic.

More virus analysis

2006-11-16T06:44:00.000-05:00

These changes would have to occur for the virus to mutate.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2655618

Lake log October 30, 2006

2006-11-02T08:53:00.002-05:00

We woke up to the first snow of the season. I know many of you, having just endured that Buffalo area storm perhaps can't celebrate with us, but it certainly was stunningly beautiful to greet sunise frosted in over an inch of white.

The fish have stopped biting off the dock. If I want to catch them, I have to look for perch and pretend to be fishing through the ice.

***********************

On Halloween we had one trick or treater whose dad decided to walk the length of our dark street and to our lighted house. We had debated buying any candy, but I was glad I had the bag of Reeses's peanut butter cup.

Jacob was 5 or 6 at most and was very talkative and opinionated. With his round glasses he looked just like a miniature version of that kid who gets the Red Ryder B-B gun in the old Jean Shepard You'll-shoot=your-eye-out story.

"Who do we have here?" Elizabeth asked.
"I want you to guess." Jacob responded.
" I guess you are Harry Potter."
"No." responded Jacob, "I am Jacob disguised as Harry Potter."

So much for confusing objective and subjective reality.

I fished out a couple peanut butter cups, dropped it in his plastic pumpkin, and decided to add a fine local apple I had just bought that day. I showed it to Jacob's dad, so he would know that it was safe and would not just toss it away.

"An apple is NOT a treat!" asserted Jacob Harry Potter, and he buzzed me with his magic wand to punctuate this truth.

"Well, I did also put in the two peanut butter cups," I explained.

His outrage was appeased.

*********************
Tomorrow we are going up to Yarmouth, Maine. Elizabeth has a conference, and I am tagging along. With my cold almost completely gone I suspect it will be a delightful journey.

As you walk into winter,
Enjoy!

Lake log October 30, 2006

2006-11-02T08:53:00.001-05:00

Lake log October 30, 2006

2006-11-02T08:53:00.000-05:00

Discouraging News

2006-10-31T09:47:00.000-05:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=2616595&page=1

There is a new strain now resistant to fowl vaccines. This whole game is like playing Whack-a-Mole and hoping that all of a sudden the More does not find a way to leave his hole in the wooden box.

More whining

2006-10-25T06:15:00.000-04:00

http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/review.php?ID=24635
Here is the attitude that worries me. There has been scientific warning for years now on possible pandemic, but when it actually catches the mainline press and raises consciousness, then everyone thinks it must happen on schedule, sooner rather than later, or it is just a joke. It doesn't happen in a few months and Oh well........

This is what happened in New Orleans. There was always a possibility of an intense hurricane, but because people were warned so many times, they got used to it, and did not take precaution.

Scientists tell us pandemic will come. Tomorrow or in a decade. Individual preparation is all that is needed. Put away a little food, Prepare for being home a lot. Back up your energy needs. Plan.

We all wait for the emergency. Then it is too late. I have seen the inconvenience, shock, and fear that just 9 days of power loss and a little storm caused in Buffalo and that was when all surroundings areas could rally to help, when neighbors could help neighbors and when no one was dying of the trouble.

Listen, the World Health Organization may not get top news billing every day, but they say this is a huge world wide danger. People need to prepare for it just like they do for a house fire. Our houses that have never burned in 100 years still have smoke detectors, electrical inspections, fire extinquishers. Larger buildings install sprinkle systems.

This kind of whining is very irresponsible. It suggests that there is a plot to put people in panic for no reason when actually there is a panic that dysfunctional families and communities will be at a total loss if this hits and people ought to at least know the danger.

And it isn't like there is no news. There is news every day of folks attempting to make vaccine, making plans, testing wild birds, it just does not get in the daily news on the top of the page. And it won't. Every day someone has their car inspected too and problems corrected, but it is the car crashes that get the media attention.

Remember the joke about the farmer with the leaky roof. On sunny days he noticed nothing, but when it rained and roof leaked, well, who could fix the roof in the rain?

All the farmer with the leaky roof ended up was wet. The farmer with pandemic roof leaks may end up dead or worse yet, with dead children.

Bird Flu Vaccine might be a very good one

2006-10-18T13:03:00.000-04:00

This is the best vaccine news I have read in a long while:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061018/ap_on_he_me/pandemic_vaccine

Another attempt at a good spin

2006-10-09T19:00:00.000-04:00

Anything to calm the public. In Iraq we won the war and lost the peace. In Bird Flu we are state of the art in control of the chickens who might get it, but if it becomes a people disease, our government says we are unprepared, that like Katrina this is a job for local and state government, that we are individually responsible for protecting ourselves, and that we ought to be weekly putting a can of tuna and some powdered milk under the bed as a hedge against starvation. Hardly seems like a "state of the art" plan to me. Unless you are a chicken.

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=N05401262

Virus mutates easily

2006-09-28T16:23:00.000-04:00

This is not really new information, but it is resubstantiated by this report. It is going to be a long, anxious winter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060928/ap_on_he_me/un_bird_flu

and in case we were getting lulled

2006-09-28T04:12:00.000-04:00

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bird-flu-still-real-risk-says-expert/2006/09/17/1158431586185.html

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=144528

Call for more drugs

2006-09-28T03:17:00.001-04:00

I don't like hearing of the drug resistant strains. Scary stuff.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200609/s1749795.htm

More research into immune response as killer

2006-09-28T03:12:00.000-04:00

One of the great ironies of this strain of flu, like its cousin in 1918 is that it is often the immune system that kills the victim. That is one of the suggested reasons why so many young people die when they get the disease. Here is some new research with mice exploring that phenomena.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2499374

Air travel and spread of flu

2006-09-12T08:55:00.000-04:00

Not that this is new information, but it does confirm by a study what most took for granted.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2422029

Bird Flu Compared with Common Flu

2006-09-11T10:48:00.000-04:00

A new study in Vietnam throws some detailed light on why this flu is so deadly. It also stresses early treatment with Tamiflu.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1737677.htm

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060910/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_humans

http://article.wn.com/view/2006/09/11/Study_shows_need_for_early_use_of_Tamiflu/

AND FROM PANDEMIC NEWS:



Paris - New research conducted among bird flu victims in Vietnam
shows the H5N1 virus replicates massively before unleashing a
dangerous inflammatory response by the immune system, indicating
that patients should be given antiviral drugs as soon as possible.

Published online Sunday by the journal Nature Medicine, the study
focuses on 18 Vietnamese who caught bird flu in 2004 and 2005, 13
of whom died.

Samples were taken from these patients to assess the level of H5N1
virus in the throat, and compared with other patients who had two
strains of ordinary human flu.

H5N1 patients had much higher viral loads than counterparts with
the human virus. In addition, high levels of H5N1 also triggered a
"dysregulation" of cytokines - messenger proteins in the immune
system - which in turn caused inflammation and worsened the
patient's condition.

"The focus of clinical management should be on preventing this
intense cytokine response, by early diagnosis and effective
antiviral
treatment," says the paper, lead-authored by Menno de Jong of the
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam.

The antiviral of choice in fighting H5N1 is oseltamivir, which
is made
by the Swiss group Roche and commercialised under the brand Tamiflu.

Tamiflu is not a cure for flu. It brakes replication of the virus,
thereby
easing inflammation which is the cause of most flu symptoms and
speeding the time to recovery.

Roche recommends that Tamiflu be administered within 48 hours to
treat ordinary seasonal human flu, and says work is under way to
fine tune treatment for bird flu.

Millions of doses of Tamiflu are being stockpiled by governments
and the World Health Organisation in the event of a global
flu pandemic.

Some experts warn against over-reliance on Tamiflu, fearing
that the
drug could be of limited use if the H5N1 virus, at present
transmissible
from birds to humans, mutates into a form that could make it easily
contagious among humans.

In the Vietnam study, 17 of the 18 cases received Tamiflu.
The drug
appears to have had little effect, but probably because
it was
administered too late to prevent the cytokine cascade,
the paper
said. - Sapa-AFP

More good news

2006-08-31T13:10:00.000-04:00

CLUES TO TREATMENT OF BIRD FLU A review of medical literature published during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic suggests that transfusions from people who survived the flu may have helped others who became sick. Navy researchers combed old publications to determine what strategies might have been effective for fighting the last pandemic flu. They believe that transfusions from someone who successfully survived the flu virus may be a viable way to treat victims of the current circulating H5N1 bird flu. This research was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

I heard a report on this on NPR. It seems pretty plausible. Maybe it will save some lives. One good thing is to have so many people working in different ideas before there is pandemic. In 1918 the scientists had to start for square one. They were not even sure if it was influenza or some new disease. At least we have the pathogen at the starting gate.

Interesting flu case

2006-08-29T09:12:00.000-04:00

This will help show not only if pregnant women can be treated with Tamiflu but if it at all helps slow up this virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060828/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_pregnancy

Progress on vaccine

2006-08-28T09:47:00.000-04:00

This is good news, but of course it might not protect people from a mutated virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060828/ap_on_he_me/china_bird_flu_vaccine

Recent conversations - reading

2006-08-26T07:09:00.000-04:00

It was a surprise to me at a poker game last night to find a fellow player had attended meetings at his workplace in which information on the flu had been shared and preparation begun for planning in case of pandemic. He seemed annoyed to have more work added to his routine agenda. Or maybe he just thought it was useless to plan when if pandemic hit, his place would be shut down.

Again, however, I encountered responses I find everywhere. One attitude that said, "Well, if my friends and family are going to die, I might as well die with them." Another that this was terrible and not much can be done, let's face it with humor.

I think preparation would help. Even small things like stockpiling food and preparing a family plan can save lives.

I am disappointed that there is not more leadership in government. As a county we mobilize to fight the big terrorists, but these little life forms hunting us are seen as a state and local responsibility. It seems odd to me. They certainly don't stay in one state or locality.

Disturbing was to hear that masks are not available right now and being bought up and stockpiled by government and health agencies. I had read this in other places but it also seems to me that I have seen some masks still available. I'll have to do some checking to see.

I just finished Barry's book on the 1918 influenza and while I won't say I can remember all the details, I did cull some interesting ideas.

SPREADING: Some of the threads were common to other reading. I age group hit was 20-40. The most common reason it is spread is overcrowding. In 1918 it was War related activity that helped spread it. Soldiers moved around from place to place. Even parades to sell war bonds helped.

INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY ACTION: Getting people to stay home and observe a few simple hygenic practices might easily have prevented some death.

DENIAL: Denial was even more widespread in 1918 because the government had completely dominated what could be printed and distributed in the press and the country had mobililzed to avoid spreading any truth that might affect the morale of the country in fighting war, so the influenza was under reported, falsely minimized, called other diseases, or simply ignored. I see the strong force for denial today. Happily some government and work places are preparing, but homes are underprepared. Simply stocking a little xtra food might make it possible to save lives in family and community.

MATHEMATICS: The development of the flu follows the same regression to the mean as does gambling. Waves of virus that are particularly mild may mutate toward the more severe while the worst case bugs mutate toward milder version. Randomness and the patterns of randomness again dictate how the disease develops.

FEAR: Reaction of individuals and communities to fear creates denial. Enormous energy must be exerted in order to get people to face fear. And yet if too much is said then panic sets in. It is a strange dilemma for educators even if motives for deciding how much information to disseminate are all simply to help people survive. In 1918 motives had nothing to do with the flu; the country had a single motive, to win the war. Everything else had to be sacrificed to achieve that goal and if anyone suggested differetly they were imprisoned by government or killed by vigilantes.

ETHICS: What to do in the face of pandemic is a difficult ethical problem. We want to help the people around us, but going to their aid can further spread the disease. In 1918, panic restricted people's altruism so that health professionals did not rise to calls for help, many people did not go to work, and people stayed away from others so they could not help them. Where once they might have brought food to the sick or dying they were afraid to catch the disease. I'm caught particularly in this problem. I guess I become a conservative on this issue because I want first to protect my family and survive. This Blog seemed a way to satisfy my responsibility to my community. As an educator I can best help by getting information out to people.

So faced with the tension between survival and being a helpful person to those I know, I settled on this Blog. So far it has failed to be of much benefit except to a very few. Sometimes I thing only spammers read this thing. So I tend to get a bit cynical. It reminds me too much of teaching inner city kids my entire life when so few wanted to learn anything I knew.

On the other hand as a tool to collect information for myself, the Blog works. In effect my thoughts and ideas on this topic are quarrantined just as my family will be when pandemic hits.

The author deals with people who selflessly work to help others and continue in the face of great risk. Many die. Still they are the heros. So figuring the right action is difficult.

SCIENCE: I suppose that I am picking up the prejudice of the Barry but I kept thinking in reading the book that science rather than war should be the focus of our society and that we are missing a great opportunity in these days of scientific wonder not to invest more in discovering things. Without some very smart people and their hard work to find the cause of disease our lives would be a lot different today. Tomorrow could be even better.

TERRORISM: Of course, that same knowledge in the hand of terrorists would reek an awful cost on America. If the virus is studied and described in detail then it can be grown and perhaps even genetically created and spread around the country. The result would cause a lot more panic than a couple airplanes in the towers. Barry says, " A weaponized influenza virus could be the equivalent of a worldwide nuclear holocaust." However, I think that is overstatement. Nuclear disaster leaves an unlivable planet. Even the worst pandemic will leave survivors who have developed immunity and their environment will be as healthy as it ever was, more healthy in fact because pollution will be greatly reduced.

new scare in Nepal

2006-08-21T22:49:00.000-04:00

This might not be our H5N1 but it is not good news.

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_21234978.shtml

First bird flu here but not the bad one

2006-08-14T15:29:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060814/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

good news on vaccine

2006-07-29T17:44:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2237838

But keep the fine print in mind:

Because it is impossible to predict which influenza strain will spark the next pandemic, it is equally impossible to produce a vaccine that will be completely effective.

USA-No Plan Again

2006-07-21T15:20:00.000-04:00

I don't know, it is not surprising to me that the government does not have a plan.
Why, isn't it enough to just put an extra can of tuna fish under the bed?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_testing
http://www.abc4.com/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=CEE6EDF8-E35D-41AA-AC65-B51E01BECD4D

"The senators (and that includes our own Hilary ) said the department is relying too heavily on states and that many states don't have enough personnel to help coordinate."

Overview of Fatalities

2006-07-16T12:15:00.000-04:00

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro06-avfludeaths-date_desc.html?mod=blogs

Good summary with details surrounding the deaths.

Indonesia still a virus breeding ground

2006-07-16T12:03:00.000-04:00

Indonesia is still a good candidate for the mutation that will mean pandemic.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060716/ap_on_he_me/indonesia_bird_flu
"Indonesia's caseload is increasing faster than any other country in the world — with all of its deaths occurring in the last year. The government says it cannot afford to routinely cull fowl in infected areas."

One man's passion to educate

2006-07-11T20:10:00.000-04:00

This article both outlines the problems in awareness and highlights one fellows mission to raise awareness. I thought my blog was a way of knocking on doors in my "community" but I can count on one hand the people who have gained anything by reading this one. My last two comments were particularly disappointing as they were strangers trying to sell something on their blog and spamming this one.

http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/15012910.htm

Three different strains in Nigeria

2006-07-05T14:44:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060705/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_nigeria

Not good news. If this is spreading quickly and changing, it has even more opportunity to mutate into pandemic

More bird flu cases coming

2006-07-02T12:43:00.000-04:00

WHO predicts that there will be more virus activity in the colder months and that means more opportunity for mutation. I have sort of mellowed in my fears because so far there was just that one mutation that could not start pandemic. Also, I have prepared pretty much all I can prepare. But this raises my anxiety level a tad again.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1676278.htm

Greg sends along some interesting Indonesian details

2006-06-24T10:30:00.000-04:00

http://www.poultryindonesia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=951

Progress in vacine development

2006-06-23T11:12:00.000-04:00

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L2295663

I hope this is as good as it reads.

It did mutate but not enough for pandemic

2006-06-23T11:08:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060623/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

It was a close call, however, and I sure wish that Indonesia gets its act together soon.

Indonesia still a hot spot

2006-06-21T13:30:00.000-04:00

Indonesia needs help if they will have any chance of controling the flu from spreading among birds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060621/ap_on_he_me/indonesia_bird_flu

Emergency Rooms

2006-06-14T22:47:00.000-04:00

A little investment in this problem would do us more good than war.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2075299

Some vaccine progress

2006-06-14T22:46:00.000-04:00

Hope this does help humans, but at least the ferrets are safe now and it is good news to see labs working on the possibilities:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=2076284

Another Tamiflu doubt

2006-06-12T23:02:00.000-04:00

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200606/s1661185.htm

More quotes from Mike Levitt

2006-06-07T21:47:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=2045194&page=1

"We could have four to five hurricanes during a pandemic, a bio-terror incident, natural disasters — all during a pandemic. We need to preserve our capacity to respond" by keeping the military and other first-responders healthy and able to work, Leavitt said.

Maybe by the time we hit the vaccine..no needles

2006-06-04T23:32:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2027845

WHO announces a plan for action

2006-06-03T20:35:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2020205

Seems unrealistic to me, but at least folks are thinking and planning. The real enemy is how fast they expect the flu to move. And then there is the question of what real good Tamiflu will do anyway.

Bird Flu warning service

2006-06-03T20:32:00.000-04:00

http://www.mobilemagazine.com/content/100/340/C8111/

I guess the writer of this blurb thinks this is exploitation, but for what it is worth, here is a cell phone offer for emergency alerts.

Tamiflu Concerns

2006-06-01T09:34:00.000-04:00

http://us.f372.mail.yahoo.com/ym/ShowLetter?MsgId=1343_1300192_13306_1481_6835_0_22796_19472_2052142320&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;Idx=0&YY=66783&inc=25&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;view=&head=&box=Inbox
While this is certainly a politically slanted article, it is worth some thought.
My own feeling is that this is not all conspiracy, but that Tamiflu is the only thing now that anyone guesses might shorten the length of the flu and save some lives. It is not just used in this country, but is being stockpiled in many of the others and used right now to treat the latest victims in Indonesia. In fact, most people are worried we will have too little.
Still, things are intertwined in ways that make you wonder.
(Thanks again to Ann for this one)

I still think that staying home and hunkering down while we wait for a vaccine is the best defense if this thing mutates.

Click here for more discussion of Tamiflu
And here
And here

This indicates how much it is in demand.

Bird Flu under reported in poor countries

2006-05-31T17:37:00.000-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/31/health/31cnd-flu.html?hp&ex=1149134400&en=8621f4a82f75b2d8&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Latest Indonesian update

2006-05-31T16:24:00.000-04:00

WHO is monitoring the situation in Indonesia and so far the news still god news.

The World Health Organization has just released the following update
to the situation in Indonesia.  Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope
that everything is contained.

Avian influenza  situation in Indonesia  update 16


31 May 2006


Situation update


Indonesian health authorities and WHO have further
strengthened their response to the family cluster of cases
in Kubu Simbelang village, Karo District, North Sumatra. As
of today, 54 surviving family members and other close
contacts of cases have been identified and placed under
voluntary home quarantine. All of these people, with the
exception of pregnant women and infants, are receiving the
antiviral drug, oseltamivir, for prophylactic purposes.
Public health teams visit these people daily, checking for
symptoms.


In addition, active house-to-house surveillance for
influenza-like illness is being conducted throughout the
village, which has around 400 households. A command post for
fever surveillance has been functioning in the village since
last week.


As of today, no new cases suggestive of H5N1 infection have
been detected since 22 May. This finding is important as it
indicates that the virus has not spread beyond the members
of this single extended family. No hospital staff involved
in the care of patients, in some instances without adequate
personal protective equipment, have developed the disease.
The last person in the cluster, who developed symptoms on 15
May and died on 22 May, refused hospitalization. He moved
between two villages while ill, accompanied by his wife. The
wife is under surveillance and has not developed symptoms.


Despite multiple opportunities for the virus to spread to
other family members, health care workers or into the
general community, it has not, on present evidence, done so.


Current level of pandemic alert


Based on an assessment of present evidence, WHO has
concluded that the current level of pandemic alert is
appropriate and does not need to change. The level of
pandemic alert remains at phase 3. This phase pertains to a
situation in which occasional human infections with a novel
influenza virus are occurring, but there is no evidence that
the virus is spreading in an efficient and sustained manner
from one person to another.


WHO has recommended continued close monitoring of the
situation in Kubu Simbelang for the two weeks following 22
May, the date when the last known case in the cluster died.
As a precautionary measure, Indonesian authorities have
decided to extend this recommended period to three weeks.


Preliminary results of the investigation


This information differs in some details from information
released in previous updates, but is derived from extensive
investigations by senior national and international
epidemiologists, from WHO and the US Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, who have developed a clearer picture
of the situation.


The cluster involves an initial case and seven subsequent
laboratory-confirmed cases. All cases are members of an
extended family: sisters and brothers and their children.
Family members resided in four households. Three households
were next-door neighbours in the village of Kubu Simbelang,
Karo District, North Sumatra. The fourth household was
located about 10 kilometres away in the nearby village of
Kabanjahe.


The initial case in the cluster was a 37-year-old woman who
sold fruits and chillies at a market in the village of
Tigapanah. Her stand was located about 15 metres away from a
stand where live chickens were sold. The investigation
uncovered no reports of poultry die-offs in the market.
However, the woman kept a small number of backyard chickens,
allowed into the house at night. Three of her chickens
reportedly died before she became ill. She is also known to
have used chicken faeces from these household chickens as
fertilizer in her garden.


A parallel agricultural investigation has not, to date,
detected H5N1 virus in PCR tests of approximately 80 samples
from poultry, other livestock and domestic pets, and chicken
fertilizer taken from the vicinity.


The initial case developed symptoms on 24 April, was
hospitalized on 2 May, and died on 4 May. No samples were
collected for testing prior to her burial, but she is
considered part of the cluster as her clinical course was
compatible with H5N1 infection.


The initial case had one sister and three brothers. The
sister and two of the brothers subsequently developed
infection. The remaining cases occurred among children in
these families.


The confirmed cases include five males and two females with
an average age of 19 years (range from 1 to 32 years). Six
out of the seven confirmed cases developed symptoms between
3 May and 5 May. These cases include two sons of the initial
case, her brother from Kabanjahe, her sister, the sister's
baby, and the son of a second brother living in an adjacent
house. This second brother, the last case in the cluster,
developed symptoms on 15 May. Six out of the seven cases
were fatal.


Exposures


On the night of 29 April, nine family members spent the
night in a small room with the initial case at a time when
she was severely ill, prostrate, and coughing heavily. These
family members included the initial case and her three sons;
the brother from Kabanjahe village, his wife, and their two
children; the 21-year-old daughter of another brother (who
did not become infected); and another young male visitor.
Following this event, three family members  the woman's two
sons and the visiting brother from Kabanjahe  developed
symptoms from 5 to 6 days later.


The woman's sister, who lived in an adjacent house,
developed symptoms at the same time, as did her 18-month-old
daughter. Prior to symptom onset, this sister, accompanied
by her daughter, provided close personal care of the initial
case.


The last case in the cluster provided close care for his son
throughout his hospital stay, from 913 May. The son was a
frequent visitor in the home of the initial case and was
present there on 29 April.

Google to follow infected birds

2006-05-31T16:21:00.000-04:00

This in from Ann.Experts are using Google's mapping software to help prepare for the arrival of the bird flu. The software will help identify areas with affected flocks and isolate them from other flocks. The bird flu is expected to arrive this summer. See article below

thanks Ann:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=technologyNews&storyID=2006-05-30T230035Z_01_N25133792_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-MAPPING.xml

Pigeons

2006-05-30T20:32:00.000-04:00

http://news.scotsman.com/latest_international.cfm?id=797742006

While songbirds fed in backyard feeders do not seem at risk, my favorite boyhood bird does seem to be in trouble. One of the Indonesian deaths was due to a fellow cleaning pigeon feces out of a gutter. And this story of a pigeon game stopped shows the extent that the bird flu has affected raising pigeons. I'm wondering what will happen to all the pigeon racers here if migratory birds bring the bird flu this way.

Of course, Indonesia just goes about business as usual:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060520/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu_ignored_warnings

And is isn't that there wasn't other warnings:

http://discuss.agonist.org/smf/?board=6%3baction=display%3bthreadid=20552

Other pigeon notes, some of them reassuring:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200510/s1487872.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12466226/

http://www.purebredpigeon.com/avianflu.htm

http://www.healthcentral.com/newsdetail/408/1508144.html

Latest from Indonesia

2006-05-26T00:03:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=2003790

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200605/s1648827.htm

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/AvianFlu/wireStory?id=1997826

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/24/world/asia/24birdflu.html

Well, no pandemic yet. Maybe we will be lucky and slip out of it with H5N1.

Analysis of the Indonesian cluster

2006-05-25T07:54:00.000-04:00

Scary week. But it was good to see the flu covered by the New York Times and National Public Radio. Somehow they managed to fit this topic in between corruption and incompetency of government action (Iraq, stolen Veteran's SSN, corruption in Congress, increasing debt, gas problems)

As far as I can tell while the cluster in Indonesia is a scary one ( the virus moved from bird to person, then to another person and then AGAIN to yet another person) it does not signal the beginning pandemic. There was no change in the nature of the hook the virus uses to infect and so it will not move efficiently from person to person. That explains why, even though the stupid Indonesians actually sent the infected people back out into the larger community for a while (until they got sicker and returned to the hospital to die) no spread seemed to be occuring in Indonesia.

It all does point out how unprepared some of these countries are. This is not the first such cluster in Indonesia. This virus has been hanging around for a couple years now and every so often there is a scare there because a cluster developes. Folks figured that Vietnam would be the most likely source of pandemic, but that country has gotten their ducks in line (so to speak) and pretty much pushed the damn bug out of the poultry population.

But Indonesia is another story.

Also worrying was that our government sent a huge shipment of Tamiflu to some "unnamed" Asian country this week. I hate it when we have to make everything a secret. It was an odd move because supposedly we are trying to stockpile Tamiflu here and definitely do not have enough for a real pandemic if it happened this week. So why send it abroad? One logical conclusion is that some American leaders thought this was going to happen this week in Indonesia. I wish they'd tell us a little more intelligent information about these things instead of that paternalizing, simplistic little speech that Leavitt gives, suggesting that everyone weekly put a can of tuna fish and a box of powdered milk under his bed. His idea of self reliance. His positioning post Katrina in order to establish that the Federal government can be of no help in pandemic emergency. It is the pre FDR theory of governemnt, every person for themselves.

Blue, red, conservative, liberal aside. The most frustrating thing in modern politics is that we are treated more and more like children than citizens. Of course, the real question is why we consistently like to put stupid people in office. If anyone looks smart in the race, the average American bristles and votes the other way.

Great news for chickens

2006-05-23T22:04:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1991394

And of course what keeps the chicks safe, keeps us safe too, in a trickle down sort of way.

http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif

2006-05-23T21:58:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1995111

So there was a human to human transmission but apparently no recombination or mutation to suggest that there will be more. Hope Indonesia gets its act together soon.

Buffalo 1918 survivor

2006-05-22T16:30:00.000-04:00

http://www.suntimes.com/output/health/cst-nws-flu21.html

This Buffalo woman's blood may hold the clue to a vaccine.

Probably not mutated In Indonesia

2006-05-20T23:33:00.000-04:00

http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/06/05/20/10041314.htmlLooks like we got lucky again in Indonesia, but I sure hope they get their act together soon.

indonesia - bad

2006-05-20T18:07:00.000-04:00

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1642346.htm

People and Pigs have it in Indonesia

2006-05-18T10:47:00.000-04:00

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=JAK28830

Very worrisome news from Indonesia.

Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap genes, leading to a strain that can easily infect people and pass from person to person.

2006-05-17T20:15:00.000-04:00

http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?action=detail&pk=INSURANCEFIRMS-05-16-06

Here is how a pandemic might affect the insurance industry.

Indonesia - not good news

2006-05-16T13:15:00.000-04:00

There is a recnt cluster of bird flu fatalities in Indonesia which has health officials worrying about the possibility that the flu was able to spread from person to person. Keep an eye on that news.

Bird Flu ABC special

2006-05-16T08:51:00.000-04:00

While I was away Elizabeth taped the bird flu ABC special for me and I've just watched it. It did seem to cover briefly all the aspects of the flu, but in much too much a sensational manner for my taste. Here are the weaknesses as I see them:

1. While ARDS was mentioned once in passing, I doubt that any viewers really got the sense of cytokline storm that hit the first victim and accounted for his early death. Certainly is was not explained as it would have been say in an episode of CSI.

2. I just damned sick of seeing the insides of bodies on all these current television shows. I've buried most of my family and learned what killed them and why without having to see inside their body cavities. This is just exploitive sensationalism.

3. The ending was unrealistic. It is highly unlikely that two mutations would occur in such a short time and from my understanding of the 1918 precedent they cite, this was simply two waves of the same virus strain as it moved in and out of a population. There have been three pandemics this century and another will come in some form, some time. When has there ever been two in a row? And what are the odds that they would be both worst case senarios? The pandemics in 1957 and 1968 did not capture my attention at the time. They were mild killers.

4. Survival techniques were not dramatically developed. Everyone did the wrong things. Once couple was plain lucky and so they could dance on the top of a building, but no one managed to survive by preparation. Part of this is because they present the urban and suburban population but no one from rural America. Quarrantine was seen as a stupid idea imposed by government, rather than the major way of waiting out the distribution of vaccine. The message again was that communities somehow working in close connection with one another (without masks or gloves by the way) could win somehow just with a smaltzy sense of love. The truth is that small groups, hunkered down and staying out of group meetings have the best chance of survival especially if they get some food in ahead of time.

5. In the end this movie provided no hope. It was like the fighting of the movie monster. Just when you thought the coast was clear, up comes Jason again out of the lake, his chain saw running. I see pandemic as very different from other massive disasters (global warming, nuclear war) because the individual and small family group can prepare and provide, as long as they don't wait until the last minute. And the wait in quarrantine is just until vaccine gets distributed and the 50% of people who do contract (but do not die from the flu) get working again. The movie might have shown an example of a rural family who had provided ahead of time and who waited out the vaccine manufacturing and distribution delays?

6. On the other hand it did present some of the problems: food and supply shortages, insurance company defaults, economic difficulties, panic in the streets, looting and loss of lawful control of populations, overcrowding of hospitals. It did a good job showing the need to take respirators away from very sick people because there are not enough of them available in today's hospitals. And the politics seemed very believable. It balanced the information on the effectiveness of Tamiflu. Good cast too. I like these actors, especially old Stacy Keach and Justina Machado, who is such a cutie.

7. Mass graves is an exaggeration.

And in the end I am glad they did it because it rasies the consciousness of people. But we had guests this weekend whose final resistance to preparing even a bit was to say, "I don't think I really want to survive such a disaster anyway." This movie would not help those folks move from fatalism to acts of survival.

This review seems pretty sound:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/news/birdfluinamerica.html

Still more good news

2006-05-14T16:12:00.000-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/200 6/05/10/health/10cnd-flu.html?_r=1&ex=1147492800&en=34534b3b2a87983d&ei=5087%0A&oref=slogin

If the flu fails to show up here in the Fall, we will be spared a lot of difficulty for the poultry industry and lessen the chance of more dire circumstances.

And if this science is good, this strain may never mutate and we may have time to prepare for the eventual pandemic.

less likely

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%3Ca%20href=%22http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html?ex=1147752000&en=f7d8dff884b46054&ei=5070%22%3E%3C/a%3E

Meanwhile some countries lie and drag feet

2006-05-14T16:07:00.000-04:00

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/19/AR2005101902147.html

Here is the problem. When governments are too corrupt to act, the disease has a chance to get a foothold.

Good news

2006-05-13T18:43:00.000-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/world/asia/14flu.html?ex=1305259200&en=41357a0296e3fda5&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss

Good news here. As it wanes, the odds of mutation go down too.

Here is a note to ponder

2006-05-12T23:34:00.000-04:00

This came from the company that I bought masks and gloves from last month:

Greetings,

You have purchased products at our site http://www.respirators.us .

As a result of a number of factors surrounding the Avian Flu scare (including
the ABC movie on the Bird Flu) we have been informed by our manufacturers that
a shortage in mask/respirator stock will occur very soon.

We apologize in advance and we will remove all products from our site that are
not available.

Regards,

Respirators Inc.

Bird Flu Survey

2006-05-12T23:23:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1872540

I don't know where these concerned people are, but I don't hear a thing about this issue. This is a good article, however, and touches on many relevant issues.

See you in a month

2006-04-20T22:07:00.000-04:00

Well, I am gone for three weeks so this will have to do for a while.

I'd advise any readers. (Hmmmmmm. Do I actually have any readers?) to stock up on some latex gloves. If the Federal Government has decided to stockpile millions of them, then they won't be available for you and me.

Soon, I won't be the only one talking about all this. ABC will start the ball rolling and the other networks will have to follow. About time I think.

Well, I'm off to play some random games that don't have deadly outcomes. I wish all of life was as easy as a game of poker where the most that can be lost is money.

Does this sound familiar?

2006-04-18T19:08:00.000-04:00

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T224607Z_01_N184659_RTRIDST_0_BIRDFLU-HOSPITALS.XML

One the main reasons to take some personal responsibility for the potential of pandemic is that there will not be help if it hits. The Feds have already indicated that they can't help. And here is what hospitals cannot do. Note that venilators are probably the single most useful way of helping those who catch a H5N1 flu bug stay alive. But they just are not going to be there.

Just like Katrina. Nobody can do nothing. The Feds say it is not their job. The locals say they don't have funds or manpower. If it is Arab terrorists, we can mortage into two or three coming generations of taxpayers for wars that cost billions and last years and years, but a little attacking bug that will be gone in two years, that is just not a real enemy I guess.

"Peacock said much of the response to a pandemic will involve very basic medical care -- including triage, or sorting out which patients cannot be helped except through heroic measures. Those patients are going to get some morphine and get sat in a corner. That is the definition of a disaster -- need exceeds resources," Peacock said.

Such a shame. Were we to win a war against H5N1 we would have no difficulty managing the subsequent peace as we do when we invade other countries. That effort would be a win/win.

Whatever happens with this current scare, everyone agrees that a pandemic is coming sooner or later. I suggest we vote in some people who will invest in hospital preparedness and get our National Guard home so they can guard the nation.

Pandemic Movie Coming Soon

2006-04-18T19:05:00.000-04:00

http://smallscreen.monstersandcritics.com/article_1156414.php/ABC_to_take_on_avian_flu_during_sweeps

SURPRISE! BIRD FLU TO ARRIVE ON ABC
Entertainment columnists were taken aback Tuesday when ABC announced that it would be broadcasting a made-for-TV disaster movie about avian flu on May 9. The network had succeeded in keeping the production of Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America, starring Stacy Keach, Joely Richardson, Ann Cusack and Justine Machado, completely under wraps. The announcement "came as a complete surprise in a business nearly devoid of surprises," wrote Michael Starr in the New York Post. In its announcement, ABC said that the movie "follows an outbreak of an Avian Flu from its origins in a Hong Kong market through its mutation into a virus transmittable from human to human around the world." Co-producer Diana Kerew told the Post that the network had kept the project secret because "The world changes very quickly, and we wanted to make sure at the point we were ready to unveil [the movie] that we were accurate and up-to-date." John M. Barry, author of the bestseller, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, about the 1918 Spanish flu, served as a consultant on the project. Meanwhile, NBC announce that it plans to take an in-depth look at the avian flu with a series of reports on the Today show and Dateline NBC.

Good, maybe if we can put out a fictional account, someone will take some serious notice.

Myth vesus Fact

2006-04-18T19:00:00.000-04:00

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/nation/14360881.htm

This is a pretty good restatement of bird flu currently and of pandemic potential. It sorts the facts from the overreaction (myth).

Bird Watchers and Feeders Risk nothing

2006-04-17T11:35:00.000-04:00

http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060416/COLUMNIST22/604160348/-1/SPORTS09

A number of sources have written to stop bird watchers and backyard feeders from worrying, especially this season before any virus has reached our shores.

white wine may Help

2006-04-16T19:32:00.000-04:00

http://www.lifeinitaly.com/news/news-detailed.asp?newsid=1419

US prepares for pandemic

2006-04-16T19:22:00.000-04:00

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060416/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bird_flu

The US is now preparing to face the potential threat of pandemic as best it can on the Federal level. Plans are still evolving, but here is the latest in details available.

Hawaii Preparing

2006-04-14T15:32:00.000-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060414/ap_on_he_me/hawaii_flu_pandemic<

Having experienced other ravages of diseases this tourist destination is making preparation for possible pandemic.

"Hawaii's airport plan calls for a nurse to take a swab from a potentially infected passenger on any plane, at the gate, or inside the airport. If tests show the traveler has the H5N1 variety, authorities are prepared to quarantine the entire jet. Officials are also ready to cordon off a gate or other section of the airport to isolate people exposed to the passenger."

Key West Chicken Roundup

2006-04-13T18:05:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1839487

Indonesia worried about Complacency

2006-04-12T10:55:00.000-04:00

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1486627.cms

Such an odd polarization in respones. Some news writers worry about over reaction; this post worries about underreaction. This is the case when such a world altering possibility rests in the genetic roll of evolutionary dice.

Vaccine techniques may change

2006-04-11T21:31:00.000-04:00

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200604/s1614276.htm

Response to the threat of bird flu and an understanding of how poorly we are equipped to respond to pandemic may change the way we manufacture vaccine.

More reassurance

2006-04-11T21:29:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1831816

Odds are good it will not mutate.

Closing schools in Brits planning

2006-04-10T21:17:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1823009

Since this flu if it evolves would target young people, closing schools is part of the defense plan.

Ethical questions

2006-04-10T09:50:00.000-04:00

http://bird-flu-symptom.info/news/bioethicist-to-offer-insights-on-avian-flu/

Some of the ethical questions to be asked in pandemic.

Celebrating Migratory Birds

2006-04-09T20:02:00.000-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1823278

Marc Seigel again Argues Against Danger

2006-04-09T09:12:00.000-04:00

Marc Seigel is one of the very few voices against the alarm that bird flu news has generated. Some think it is just a way to promote his book, but it does give us hope that the warnings might be over blown.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-siegel6apr06,0,3341586.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions